Waterfowl Breeding Habitat Conditions As of December 31, 2024

The waterfowl breeding season may seem far away, but the trajectories of core nesting habitats in mid- and late-winter offer an early window into duck production next spring. Overall, conditions across the prairie pothole region present a mixed picture, with several regions facing significant challenges.

Let’s start with Manitoba, one of the brighter spots on the prairie landscape. Following a relatively stable winter, decent snowfall has positioned the province for a solid start to nesting, assuming favorable precipitation and temperatures hold into April and May.

In contrast, the eastern Dakotas—key drivers of U.S. waterfowl production—are entering spring in need of some additional water. While last year’s wet spring and early summer fueled excellent duck production, precipitation sharply tapered off by mid-summer, and the landscape has remained drier-than-average since. Winter precipitation was sparse; many areas saw only light snow cover throughout the season. To rebound, North and South Dakota will need significant moisture in the form of late-winter snowstorms and sustained, drenching spring rains to replenish the temporary and seasonal wetlands vital to ensuring strong fall flights.

Turning back to the Canadian prairies, Saskatchewan and Alberta remain in a tough position. Winter precipitation has been sufficient to maintain their already-strained conditions, however, large areas still face water deficits stemming from prolonged droughts. Consistent, heavy precipitation will be required as soon as possible to move the needle toward good breeding conditions.

The outlook is more favorable in eastern Canada, where water tables and frost seals are in good to excellent condition across most of Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritime Provinces. However, drier conditions prevailed this winter across much of the U.S. Atlantic Flyway, raising the need for moisture to fuel the production of the eastern mallards and black ducks breeding there.

Unfortunately, dry conditions in the Pacific Flyway are offsetting the gains of the past two years following a prolonged and dangerous drought. In California, duck production seems a trivial matter compared to January’s devastating wildfires, which are believed to have spread partly due to the dry conditions extending from Los Angeles north into the Central Valley. Conditions have also declined in northern Oregon, Idaho, large swaths of Washington, and central British Columbia.

Ultimately, nesting conditions this spring will hinge on how the next few months unfold. For the heart of the prairie pothole region, particularly in the eastern Dakotas and western prairie Canada, the need is urgent. A return to good or great conditions for breeding ducks will require several heavy snows and/or multi-day, soaking rainstorms delivering substantial amounts of water to the landscape between now and April. —Mike Buxton