2025 State Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey Roundup
Spring duck numbers up in California, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, down in North Dakota
By Paul Wait
Duck and goose hunters look to results from the annual continental Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey as a key indicator of what to expect during the upcoming season. Those survey results from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service are expected to be released in early September, and Delta will provide extensive analysis.
Seven states conduct their own independent surveys, with each result serving as an indicator of the breeding population this spring. As a snapshot, the state surveys show a modest decrease in breeding duck numbers from 2024.
It’s important to remember that we hunt the fall flight, which is the breeding population plus the year’s new ducks produced on the breeding grounds. Duck production—the numbers of yearling ducks in the fall flight—generally determines whether hunters experience an abundance of ducks over decoys when the autumn migration begins.
Wetland habitat conditions were dry in April across the Dakotas and southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan but improved with May rainfall. Alaska and Northern California were wet in the Pacific Flyway, and most of the Atlantic Flyway breeding areas showed good to excellent conditions for breeding waterfowl.
Delta would like to thank the following state agency people who supplied the survey data we’ve summarized hereafter:
Barbara Avers, Michigan Dept. of Natural Resources
Taylor Finger, Wisconsin Dept. of Natural Resources
Nathaniel Huck, Minnesota Dept. of Natural Resources
Mike Szymanski, North Dakota Game and Fish Department
Kyle Spragens, Washington Dept. of Fish and Wildlife
Brandon Reishus, Oregon Dept. of Fish and Wildlife
Melanie Weaver, California Dept. of Fish and Wildlife
Michigan
Michigan’s survey was skewed by multiple scheduling delays for aircraft and pilots, resulting in later timing and reduced visibility for observers because of leaf cover. In addition, four of the survey’s 30 planned transects were not flown this spring.
The survey estimated 142,333 total ducks, which is a 79% decrease from 2024’s estimate of 673,827 ducks. The estimate of 87,967 mallards represents a 65% decline from 250,581 in 2024. Canada geese were estimated at 247,878, a 12% decrease from last year, but still 6% above the long-term average from 1991 to 2024.
The statewide wetland abundance index of 376,654 was 20% lower than 2024. Wetland conditions were considered excellent for breeding waterfowl in the Southeastern Lower Peninsula, fair around Saginaw Bay and into mid-Michigan, and good for the rest of the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula.
Wisconsin
At an estimate for 564,693, Wisconsin marked a healthy 7% increase in total ducks this spring.
Among the state’s most common nesting duck species, mallards at 149,568 were up 2% from 2024, however, they’re still 16% below the long-term mean from 1973 to 2024. The blue-winged teal estimate of 75,894 is a 15% decline, while wood ducks at 89,885 were down about 2%.
Canada geese continue to thrive in Wisconsin, although the estimate of 131,567 is an 8% decline from 2024. Still, Canada geese breeding populations remain 21% above the long-term dating back to 1986.
Wetland conditions were good across most regions of the state this spring.
Minnesota
Habitat conditions were much drier than last spring, yet the 2025 survey showed a total duck estimate of 417,424, an 8% increase.
At 163,517, mallard numbers bounced higher by 16% but remain 28% below the long-term average in Minnesota. Blue-winged teal numbers cratered by 60%, with an estimate of just 64,192. In 2024, Minnesota’s bluewing estimate was 159,514. “Other ducks,” which include common Minnesota nesting species such as wood ducks, gadwalls, and ring-necked ducks, were up 119% over 2024.
Canada geese jumped 32%, coming in at an estimated 140,476, the highest number since 2018.
The number of wet Type 1 seasonal wetlands decreased by 73% from 2024, and the U.S. Drought Monitor assessed that 60% of Minnesota was in moderate to severe drought in mid-April. Conditions had improved by late May, however, it’s likely many ducks encountering dry wetland basins chose to settle elsewhere to breed.
North Dakota
The number of breeding ducks declined sharply again this spring in North Dakota, the most important state for mid-continental duck populations. During its annual survey, the North Dakota Game and Fish Department estimated 2.66 million breeding ducks, a 9% decrease from last year.
The 2025 estimate of 382,588 mallards represents a dramatic decline from populations of the 2000s and 2010s. North Dakota’s average breeding population of mallards from 2001 to 2020 was 916,645, including a record 1.25 million in 2001. By contrast, the average from 2021 to 2025 is just 538,425 mallards.
This spring, breeding pintails were estimated at 138,529, a 22% decline from 2024 and 44% below the long-term average. Blue-winged teal, the most numerous breeding duck in North Dakota at 685,483, dropped 15% from last spring. Gadwalls were estimated at 409,671, a 3% decline from 2024, while shovelers came in at 333,714, a 6% decline. Green-winged teal were down 24% with an estimate of 27,550.
A few species showed increases, notably redheads, canvasbacks, scaup, and wigeon. Redheads, the most common diving duck species in the survey at 295,424, showed a 23% increase. Canvasbacks at 59,770 were up 14%, while scaup (bluebills) at 188,025 jumped 26%. Wigeon tallied 29,574, a 9% gain over last year.
Canada geese were estimated at 213,085, a decrease of 15%. Despite the decline, Szymanski noted that North Dakota’s goose population remains very strong.
NDGF conducted the survey May 6 to 9, covering more than 1,800 miles of transects. The pond count was down 38% from last year. The 2025 pond count ranks 52nd out of the past 78 years.
Strong rainfall in May has helped duck production. The state’s July brood survey showed a 24% increase in the number of duck broods over 2024, leading North Dakota biologists to predict a fall flight similar to last season.
Washington
Washington’s survey estimate of 159,197 total ducks is remarkably similar to spring 2024. The 2025 estimate represents just 830 fewer ducks, a decrease of about 0.5%. However, mallards declined nearly 11% to 77,037. Gadwalls, the state’s second-most-common nesting ducks, decreased 31% to 14,404.
Teal, both greenwings and cinnamons, are a bright spot in the survey report. Green-winged teal jumped 61% to 13,640, while cinnamon teal increased 146% to 5,087 ducks.
The wood duck estimate came in 8% higher, while shovelers declined 30%. Among diving ducks, redheads at 7,890 logged a 1% increase over 2024. Canada goose estimates rose to 39,874, a 12.5% increase.
The report characterized habitat conditions as slightly wetter than 2024, with a portion of the western survey strata during the early May survey found to be abnormally dry to suffering moderate drought. Most of the eastern half of the state had average water.
Oregon
At 267,222 total ducks, the Oregon 2025 survey results show a 11.5% decrease from spring 2024. However, the year-over-year population decline is mostly attributed to a 49% drop in shovelers, which were estimated at 41,653 this spring compared to 80,864 in 2024.
Mallards, the most common nesting duck in the state, increased 12% to 79,525 ducks. Gadwalls were estimated at 58,508, down 10% from last year, but still well above the long-term average. Cinnamon teal increased 38% to a breeding population estimate of 22,764.
Pintails, green-winged teal, and wigeon estimates were all down, but none of those species are major nesters in Oregon. Among diving duck species, ruddy ducks, redheads, ring-necked ducks, and canvasbacks all posted increases over 2024.
Canada geese were estimated at 35,922, a 7.5% increase from last year.
Wetland conditions were generally good to excellent in the eastern region, especially Klamath, Lake, and Harney counties, while western region habitat was significantly drier. In the northeast, water varied from excellent in the Baker Valley to fair in Grande Ronde Valley and the Columbia Basin.
California
A little water can go a long way, and California’s breeding duck population has responded to improved habitat conditions, especially in the northern portion of the state. The total estimated number of ducks increased 27% to 474,495 this spring.
The breeding population of mallards jumped to 265,640, a 49% increase over 2024. The mallard estimate is the highest since 2018, however, the species remains 16% below the long-term average dating back to 1992.
Gadwalls more than doubled in 2025, increasing to 110,172. The estimate represents a 104% increase and puts them 28% above the long-term average in California. Cinnamon teal, on the other hand, declined to 36,271, a 21% drop from 2024. Shovelers also declined 26% to 34,765.
Canada geese, which are only surveyed in California’s northeastern region, increased 81% to 62,034 birds. The estimate puts Canada geese 43% higher than the long-term average.
Statewide precipitation through June was 95% of average, with Northern California near to above average, central regions near to below average, and southern regions below average. Water allocations are at full allotment for wetland management and rice agriculture in the Sacramento Valley, which should benefit breeding waterfowl.